The confectionery market in Poland 2026: data, industry debt, ingredient prices and niches

The market in numbers

The exact number of pastry shops in Poland depends on who is counting. Pastry shops and bakeries share one Polish activity code, PKD 10.71.Z (production of bread and fresh pastry goods and cakes), so public statistics do not separate them, and the REGON business register also includes suspended businesses. Below are the numbers that can be checked at the source.

• IBISWorld estimates the revenue of the bakery goods production industry in Poland at 9.1 billion EUR in 2026 and counts 7,954 businesses in it^[1]
• in 2025 the average person in Poland consumed 43.1 kg of sugar (39.8 kg in 2024, 43.2 kg in 2023)^[2]
• in the same year consumption per person was 6.1 kg of butter and 218 hen eggs, compared with 6.0 kg and 201 eggs in 2024^[2]

Industry debt: fewer debtors, larger amounts

The most recent picture of the industry's finances comes from BIG InfoMonitor, a Polish credit bureau that tracks overdue debt of businesses under PKD 10.71.Z (bread and cake producers) and 47.24.Z (shops selling bread and confectionery).

• in December 2025 the overdue debt of the whole industry exceeded 238 million PLN, and 91% of it (more than 217 million PLN) belonged to producers^[3]
• the number of indebted producers fell by 47 within a year to 873, and their overdue debt dropped by more than 49 million PLN^[3]
• debt of shops is growing: up 4.7% within a year and 43% compared with 2022; the average indebted shop owes about 75,000 PLN, a year earlier 63,000 PLN^[3]
• in the data for 2024, debt of bread and cake sellers rose by 23% and exceeded 21 million PLN^[4]

What is growing and what is shrinking

The Polish market is clearly polarizing. Large discount chains bake bread on site and have taken a large share of everyday bread and roll sales. At the same time, some segments a discounter cannot serve well remain: craft pastry shops, made-to-order cakes (wedding and celebration cakes), gluten-free and vegan baking, and desserts for restaurants.

• everyday bread: a growing share of sales in discount stores that bake on site from semi-finished products
• made-to-order celebration cakes: what counts is the conversation, personalization and a deadline that is met, which a discounter will not offer
• cookies, macarons, eclairs: bought as a small treat, so a higher price is easier to defend than with a sweet yeast bun
• delicatessens, fine food stores and concept stores: a sales channel for small pastry shops
• “clean label” baking (no preservatives, natural colorings): interest from customers who read the ingredient list

Ingredient prices: cocoa and butter

Cocoa and butter rose the most in recent years, and a pastry shop can hardly do without either of them. On top of that came a tax change that raised food prices on the shelf.

• cocoa: the ICCO daily price averaged 2,427 USD per tonne in 2021^[5]; at the end of 2024 the nearby futures contract cost 11,441 USD/t in London and 11,545 USD/t in New York, about 4.7 times more^[6]
• butter: in December 2024 the median regular price of a 200 g pack on Polish receipts was 9.11 PLN (about 45 PLN/kg), compared with 6.99 PLN in January of that year^[7]
• VAT on food in Poland: in 2024 the rate went back from 0% to 5%^[4]

Where the real niches for craft bakers are

A niche does not mean competing on price with Lidl. In 2026 the niches are segments where customers come for an experience, quality and a story, not for the cheapest baguette.

• wedding cakes with delivery and setup at the venue: a high value per order; set the price from the recipe and labor cost, not from a competitor's price list
• cakes for companies (events, conferences): a regular B2B customer, an invoice, large single orders
• holiday and occasion boxes with delivery: Valentine's Day, Easter, Christmas, Mother's Day
• working with local cafes and restaurants (HoReCa): regular turnover and invoicing
• courses and workshops in your own pastry shop: extra income that also builds your brand
• online sales: holiday pre-orders plus local delivery (Bolt Food, Uber Eats or your own courier)

Consumer trends: what customers choose in 2026

Some changes in customer behavior are easy to see, but hard Polish data about pastry shops alone is scarce. That is one of the reasons we are starting our own survey (more at the end of the article). Customers are less loyal on price and more loyal on quality, and they expect transparency and local products. That is good news for craft bakers, but it requires communication that bakeries traditionally have not done.

• customers ask about ingredients and allergens, and a label with the full ingredient list builds trust
• the growing role of social media: Instagram and TikTok as a way to show your baking
• a product photo on social media often works better than a billboard by the road
• gluten-free, vegan and lower-sugar baking: a niche that requires know-how
• “ceramics, not plastic”: eco packaging, paper bags and kraft boxes raise the perceived value

Why some pastry shops grow despite rising ingredient costs

Our experience running the PyziPyzi pastry shop in Kalisz since 2018, and conversations with other pastry shop owners, point to a few repeating traits of the shops that cope well. It is not about the recipe, it is about operations and marketing.

• full control of recipe costs: the pastry shop knows what every cake costs to make, down to the last zloty
• pre-orders: customers order in advance, so the pastry shop does not bake blindly and throw food away
• active communication with customers: SMS, email or Instagram updates on the order status
• professional invoices (KSeF, Poland's National e-Invoicing System) and B2B service: the pastry shop is treated as a partner, not a market stall
• data: which menu items make money, which lose money and on which days of the week

You cannot beat a discounter on price. You can beat a discounter with your story, your quality and the way you talk to customers. But for that you need processes, not just baking.

Our survey of pastry shop owners

Many numbers about the Polish confectionery market are estimates or data shared by bakeries and pastry shops. That is why we are running a survey of pastry shop owners in Poland (Barometr cukiernika 2026), asking them directly about the situation in the industry. The survey is conducted in Polish.