Butter prices in Poland 2023-2026: analysis, trends and forecast

Why butter costs what it costs

More than 80% of the price of butter is the price of raw milk. To make 1 kg of butter you need about 20-22 liters of milk (depending on the fat content). That is why every move in the price farmers get for milk passes almost directly into the price of butter in the shop, with a delay of 4-8 weeks.

• average purchase price of raw milk in Poland (2024): about 2.30-2.50 PLN per liter^[1]
• about 20-22 liters of milk (3.5-4% fat) are needed to make 1 kg of butter
• raw material cost = about 46-55 PLN/kg for the milk alone (before packaging, margin and transport)
• electricity and gas at the dairy add about 3-5 PLN/kg in 2024

The price path 2021-2026

Butter in Polish supermarkets went from about 5.50 PLN per 200 g in 2021, through a peak of 9-10 PLN in Q4 2024, to settling at around 7-9 PLN in 2025 (depending on the chain and brand). That is more than a 60% increase in 3 years.

• 2021: 200 g of butter, on average 5.20-5.80 PLN in retail chains
• 2022: the first wave of increases, on average 7.00-7.50 PLN
• 2023: stable at about 7.20 PLN with seasonal swings
• Q4 2024: a record, Extra butter at 10.49 PLN in some chains^[2]
• 2025: a partial correction, on average about 7.80-8.50 PLN
• Q1 2026: a slight downward trend thanks to good supply, but still high

What drove prices over the last 3 years

The key starting point for understanding today's prices is the COVID-19 pandemic. It upset supply chains and the dairy commodity market in 2020-2022, and the wave of increases from that period never went back to pre-pandemic levels. Further factors (the war, energy inflation, drought, exports) added up in layers. The key drivers:

• THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC (2020-2022): HoReCa closed, broken supply chains, a sudden rise in transport and packaging costs, reorganized dairy production. Butter prices broke away from the historical average and never returned to it.
• a falling number of dairy cows in the EU (since 2021): less milk on the market
• the war in Ukraine (since February 2022) and the energy shock: electricity, gas and feed prices up by double digits
• exports of Polish dairy products to distant markets (China, North Africa): extra demand pressure
• the 2022-2023 drought: lower milk yields, more expensive feed
• wage pressure in dairies: higher labor costs

Wholesale prices for pastry shops: the 2026 reality

A pastry shop does not buy butter in a supermarket. It buys from a wholesaler or directly from a dairy. In Q1 2026 wholesale prices of 82% block butter (for pastry chefs) in Poland are 32-38 PLN/kg net. That means the cost of the butter in a cake (assuming 200 g of butter in the cream) is about 6.40-7.60 PLN net.

• 82% block butter, 2.5 kg: about 85-95 PLN net per block (wholesale, Q1 2026)
• clarified butter (ghee) for pastry: about 45-55 PLN/kg net
• premium pastry margarine (Biskin, Krona): about 12-18 PLN/kg, a cheaper alternative
• net vs gross: butter has a 5% VAT rate in Poland (food item)

Forecast for 2026-2027

Forecasts from the European Commission (DG AGRI) and KOWR (Poland's National Support Centre for Agriculture) analysts from early 2026 indicate that in 2026 butter prices will stay above the long-term average but will not exceed the Q4 2024 peak. The reasons:

• milk supply in the EU is stabilizing (not growing, but it has stopped falling)
• global demand (China, MENA) is still strong, but growing more slowly than in 2022-2023
• the average European Commission forecast for 2026: butter prices down 3-6% year on year^[3]
• risks: drought, war or sudden changes in EU regulations could push the price up again
• the takeaway for pastry shops: when planning your 2026 budget, assume 2025 prices, possibly minus 5%

How to protect yourself against price swings

For a craft pastry shop, where butter is often 8-15% of a recipe's ingredient cost, a strategy for limiting price risk looks like this:

• a fixed cake price list with a safety margin: review prices every quarter and update them when costs change by more than 5%
• contracts for larger volumes with a local dairy: a stable price for 3-6 months
• recipe alternatives: cream made with clarified butter (less butter per unit of cream, because there is less water)
• do not lower quality in butter-based mascarpone cream, customers will notice immediately
• calculate the TOTAL cost of every recipe, not only the main ingredients but also packaging and energy

How BakePilot helps

When butter prices swing, the biggest problem for a pastry shop is NOT the increase itself. It is not knowing how much the margin on cakes has dropped, because recipes are costed once while the butter price goes up every month. In BakePilot you update the price in the ingredient database, and all recipes and cost calculations are recalculated immediately. Add purchase invoices in the Purchases module and stock levels: you can see how much butter you bought this month, at what average price, and whether you are overstocking when prices fall. Pricing with butter at 40 PLN/kg cannot be the same as at 32 PLN/kg, and BakePilot always shows you the current picture.